Mike: This was a busy week for layoff and unemployment reports. The important numbers came from the BLS and they showed that nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply (-533,000) in November, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.5 to 6.7 percent. While these numbers are bad enough, they somewhat hide the true unemployment numbers, which are estimated at around 12%. The 12% figure comes adding the BLS (-533,000) to the number of people who have stopped looking for work or are working part-time jobs instead of full-time as they would prefer. The New York Times does a good wrap-up of the unemployment numbers:
“More significantly, the unemployment rate does not include those too discouraged to look for work any longer or those working fewer hours than they would like. Add those people to the roster of the unemployed, and the rate hit a record 12.5 percent in November, up 1.5 percentage points since September.”
The following graph, courtesy of http://www.shadowstats.com , shows the BLS unemployment numbers and then the SGS Alternate number, which is over 16%. The SGS Alternate is described as: The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated “discouraged workers” defined away during the Clinton Administration added to the existing BLS estimates of level U-6 unemployment.
The following graph from the BLS shows the rapid deterioration of the job market:
Mike: Many talking heads mention that the “official” unemployment rate of 6.7% is less than that of the 1974 and 1980 recessions, so that this newly minted recession won’t be as bad as the two previous recessions. What is not mentioned is that the reported rate of unemployment was changed during the Clinton administration. The change was the exclusion of discouraged workers from the reported unemployment rate. So if you include the discouraged workers, the official rate would be greater than 6.7%. Government manipulation of numbers makes the current situation look better than previous recessions, but that is not the case.
Now let’s get to this weekend’s job loss news:
Mike: The workers at Republic Windows and Doors deserve a lot of support for standing up for their rights. If job loss numbers continue to deteriorate, revolts like this will and should become commonplace.
CHICAGO, Dec. 5 (UPI) — Workers at a Chicago factory that shut down this week said Friday they will remain in the plant until police throw them out or they get their last paychecks.
A union representative at Republic Windows and Doors blamed Bank of America for the debacle, CBS2 in Chicago reported. Leah Fried of the United Electrical Workers of America accused the bank of forcing the company to close by cutting off credit and then refusing to guarantee payment on its last checks. Workers occupy closed factory
Intel Corp. could be preparing to lay off as much as 10 percent of its work force and cut its fourth-quarter guidance for the second time, an analyst said Friday, because the economic crisis has caused computer makers to sharply curtail the amount of processors they buy for those machines. Intel
Four of the 15 jobs eliminated by S.C. Educational Television in the face of state budget cutbacks will come from ETV Lowcountry and will include one of the station’s best-known personalities. SCET layoffs
The national economic crisis continues to affect El Paso, with another plant closing in the Sun City. As many of us plan our Christmas and new year celebrations, some employees in the food industry are thinking about what they’ll do when they’re out of work in less than two months. In short, they’re planning for unemployment. East El Paso Tortilla Factory Announces It Will Shut Down in 2009
ST. LOUIS — Bedding major Serta International has halted production at its factory here and says will close the facility by the end of January.The closing will eliminate about 95 jobs, said Kelly Rampson, Serta’s director of marketing. St. Louis-area Serta mattress plant closing
Steelcase, the Grand Rapids, Mich.-based office furniture maker, said Thursday it is closing a factory in Atlanta next year and will eliminate 300 white collar jobs as it weathers the economic slump. Steelcase Cutting Up to 900 Jobs
As promised last month, the Nutter administration began delivering layoff notices yesterday – but fewer municipal workers may find themselves out of work than previously stated.Mayor Nutter had said that 220 full-time positions would be lost to help close a $108 million shortfall for this fiscal year.
As of yesterday, however, that figure had shrunk to 141, and could shrink much further. Fewer layoffs than expected for Phila. city workers
HAGERSTOWN, MD – Just weeks before Christmas, more than 100 local Citi workers have been laid off. Citi layoff
MUSCATINE, Iowa — Gary Carlson of HNI corporation has announced another round of layoffs is coming. HNI corporation to layoff more employees
The Wichita Metro Chamber of Commerce announced Thursday it will eliminate three jobs. Wichita Metro Chamber of Commerce will eliminate three jobs.
Plymouth Tube Co. to lay off 31 workers - Plymouth Tube Co. to lay off 31 workers
Framingham-based Staples, Inc. said Friday it will lay off about 140 workers, including half of its home office.
The Boston Globe reports that Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Co., will cut jobs after combining several units. A company official said only that several hundred people will be affected, including fewer than 100 in Boston.
Goulston & Storrs PC, a Boston-based law firm, said 40 administrative employees were let go this week — most of them at its Boston headquarters.
Data storage giant EMC Corp. of Hopkinton says it’s laid off “a small number” of workers during the last month. But it said it would finish the year with more employees than it started with. Major Mass. companies making job cuts
Mounting job losses hit hotel and gambling sectors - hotel and gambling workers are among the hardest hit
Mike: I have to laugh at the so called predictions of economists, since they are rarely right and they are always surprised. I guess if you live in a sheltered academic tower, you don’t see how life is unfolding for the people you are studying. These economist types might as well put their predictions on a roulette wheel and give it a spin. John Kenneth Galbraith put it perfectly: “ The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
“This was much worse than was expected,” said University of Maryland job market economist Peter Morici. “The threat of a widespread depression is now real and present.”
Some labor market analysts pointed to an alternate measure of unemployment calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a more accurate picture.
That measure estimates a jobless rate of 12.5 percent, which includes workers employed part-time because they can’t find full-time jobs and the “marginally attached” or “discouraged” workers who temporarily have given up looking for work.
Worthington Industries Inc. said it will close a metal framing plant and idle two others as it cuts more than 10 percent of its steel processing work force, moves that could cost more than 300 jobs. Worthington Industries closing, idling plants
About 800 people will be out of work when the Petit Jean Poultry Inc. deboning plant in Danville closes at the end of January. Danville braces for poultry plant closure
MASSENA — The General Motors Powertrain plant here will be closing for an additional week, beginning Dec. 15, according to corporate officials. GM plant in Massena closing for additional week
Mission Foods said Friday that it is closing its Fort Worth tortilla and chip plant and laying off 187 workers because of concerns over the current economic downturn, although the company says sales growth is positive. Mission Foods is closing a Fort Worth plant and laying off 187 workers
The largest Japanese carmaker is eliminating nine days of output by extending an annual holiday shutdown of its Georgetown, Kentucky, facility and closing the location two additional days in January. Toyota Expands Shutdowns of U.S., Canada Factories Amid Slump
SPRINGFIELD, Ore. – Shorewood Packaging closing Springfield, Ore., plant, putting about 100 people out of work.
As the failing economy continues to girdle the nation, 298 folks will be out of a job come Jan. 31 when the Cintas Corporation closes down two of its manufacturing operations. Cintas closing Bath Co. plant
Cambria job cuts loom EBENSBURG — Continuing work on the proposed 2009 budget, the Cambria County commissioners said Friday that more layoffs could be coming in jobs other than the previously announced ones at Laurel Crest, the county nursing home.
Shares of RealNetworks fell nearly 7% Friday after it joined the growing number of companies laying off workers this month. Real is cutting 130 jobs, or about 7.5% of its total workforce. RealNetworks joins layoff list
Houston area could lose 46,000 jobs The Houston area could lose about 46,000 jobs over the next 12 months as the national recession — coupled with a sudden slump in the all-important energy markets — takes root locally, the Greater Houston Partnership said in its latest economic forecast.
Mike: See you all on Monday.